Looking Into Trend Following Indicators

Trend following indicators is a way that many people invest in stocks. It’s a strategy that is used which will use long-term moves on how markets have done in the past to figure out what to trade and what to keep.

Using this method will be a way that people will know how and when to invest in the right stocks. Which will offer the best chance at profits, and how well they have done in the past will be figured into that strategy.

When traders do this type of method they will not be forecasting the stocks and what is going to happen. Instead they are simply following a trend that has been shown in the past. Looking to the current prices of the stock, equity levels and what the market’s current volatility. Those are the main components that will be used by the trader when using this method.

Trend following indicators will not be used on a new stock that has come to the market, but one that has been established. When using this method the price will always be the consideration that is put first. Plus when using this method they may use the indicators to guess which way the stock will head next.

Also how much will be traded during the trend will need to be figured out as well. If the market is at high volatility though trading will most likely be reduced in order to cut the losses on the trades. If you use trend following indicators, price and time are always going to be very important.

With trend following indicators you should be able to answer the following questions. When you enter the market, how many shares you will trade at a time. Money that will be risked for each trade, how will you cut your losses on a trade, and what to do when the trade becomes profitable?

Find more on market trend trading and trend following systems.

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Green Energy Stocks

Are you aware of the fact that the peak of the global oil production (all liquids, including unconventional oil) will peak in the next few years. Do you know China is the largest producer of coal? Coal production n China would peak somewhere around 2010-2020.

The global peak of uranium production lies somewhere around2025-2050. The global peak of natural gas production lies somewhere around 2025! You must be thinking what to do every available source of energy seems to be peaking in the near future?

But there are many safe and environmentally friendly methods to generate the energy required. Uptill now these methods had been ignored maybe because they were a bit expensive. They were expensive in the sense that these methods factor in the external costs that were previously being ignored. Do you know this fact that the US Department of Energy has estimated that there is enough available offshore wind energy of the coasts of US that can nearly cover the current US electricity capacity? So what will fill this void in energy production in the coming decades?

If all the care in US were hybrids by 2025 that would roughly reduce 80% of the US oil import. IF every bulb in the US was replaced with an energy efficient fluorescent lamp, enough energy could be saved to shut down around 100 power plants.

Enough power could be generated for the entire US by covering only 9% of Nevada desert with parabolic trough systems. This is something like a plot of land 100 by 100 miles. So the solution is already there and as the end of fossil fuel nears which is only a decade away, more and more alternative energy solutions will be used to generate cheap energy.

You might have seen only a glimpse of that last year in 2008 when crude oil prices jumped to around $150 per barrel. This is something that is bound to happen. The supplies of fossil fuel are finite and will be exhausted in the near future.

There is little doubt that companies operating in the green energy sector will ultimately become the major players in the overall energy generation and transportation mix of tomorrow. This prediction is based on our insatiable energy consumption and the lack of conventional supplies to meet the growing energy demand. This is most probably the safest long term bet that you can make in the long term.

Keeping in view the above facts, investing in green energy stocks in the best long term investment that you can make! Imagine Henry Ford in 1909 asking you to invest in his Ford Motor Company that is about to mass produce a horseless carriage.

Right now the world is standing at another threshold. But many folks in that year of 1909 were skeptical about Model T success. This is now 2009, exactly a century has passed. Do you think investing in green energy stocks is a bad idea? He tells you that this invention could change the entire landscape of the country. Knowing everything that you know right now with the power of hind sight with you, you will definitely say yes. Green Energy stocks may turn out to be your best investment decision of your life. A massive investment frenzy is about to take place in the green energy technologies.

Mr. Ahmad Hassam has done Masters from Harvard University. Try these cash printing Forex Signals from heaven. Discover a revolutionary Forex Robot System!

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Index Options Trading (Part II)

Index options premium all depends on the volatility of the market. The duller the market, the lower the index options premium. Well it depends on the expectations of the traders whether the market will move sufficiently in the near future for them to exercise their buy or sell rights. The more volatile the market, the higher then index option premium! Infact there are many factors that can affect the options premium like theta Vega, gamma. Now what are these terms and from where they have cropped up? These terms are known as the options Greeks. Before you start trading options, you need to learn what these terms means.

Options offer investors far more trading strategies as compared to futures. Such strategies can range from highly speculative to highly conservative. Options are a far more basic instrument than the ETFs and futures. You can easily replicate any ETF or futures contract with an option but the reverse is not true. In case, the market does not decline, you only lose the premium that you had paid for the put option. Suppose, you are afraid that the market is going to go down in the near future! You can protect yourself from this decline in the market by buying a out index option. When the market declines, the put increases in value.

So as said before, options can help you profit from a bullish market as well as from a bearish market. It all depends on how well you anticipate the mood of the market and devise your options trading strategy. In case, the market does not decline, you only lose the premium that you had paid for the put option. Suppose, you are afraid that the market is going to go down in the near future! You can protect yourself from this decline in the market by buying a out index option. When the market declines, the put increases in value.

There are always two parties to a trade. In case of options, one is the options buyer and the other is the options seller. Options trading are a zero sum game. Either the options buyer wins or the seller wins. Both can’t. Now the seller of a call options believes that the market will not move sufficiently up in the near future so he/she can make money by writing a call options contract and selling it to someone who believes the maker will move up. Of course for anyone who buys an options contract there should be someone to sell the options contract to make a complete transaction.

So in a way, buying and selling of options contracts make options trading a zero sum game. Either the market will move up or it will not. Either the option seller will win or the options buyer will win. The development of the stock index futures and the index options was a major development in 1980s for investors and money managers. The buyers of the put options are in a way insuring their portfolio against possible market decline but who are the sellers of the put options. They are primarily those investors who are willing to buy those stocks but only at lower prices. Options are an important component of any money manager portfolio. Many hedging strategies now depend on options.

Index options have some unique advantages. They already have the diversification inbuilt into them. But with stock index futures and options, investors were able to buy in some way the whole market such as represented by these stock indexes. Heavily capitalized firms in the major stock indexes like the S&P 500 or the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) have always attracted money because of their outstanding liquidity.

Index options give the investors the ability to insure the value of their portfolios at the lowest possible prices and save on the transaction costs and taxes. Why don’t you try trading index options?

Mr. Ahmad Hassam is a Harvard University Graduate. Try these cash printing Forex Signals from heaven. Discover a revolutionary Forex Robot System!

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Growth Stocks Investment

When you start looking for good stocks, you often come across these terms like large cap, mid cap, small cap, growth and value. Let’s discuss these terms for a moment. Capitalization or cap refers to the combined value of all the share of a company’s stocks. The division between large cap, mid cap and small cap are often blurry and not sharp.

Statistical studies of large cap, mid cap and the small cap stocks has shown that over the years small cap stocks have outperformed. Mid caps are companies with $1 to $5 Billion in capitalization and small caps are companies with $250 million to $1 Billion in capitalization. Anything below $250 million can be considered as micro cap. However the following divisions are generally accepted: Large caps are companies with over $5 Billion in capitalization.

You must have often heard of the P/E ratio of a stock being talked about the analyst on CNBC or Bloomberg. Perhaps the most important ratio is the Price to Earnings Ratio (P/E). Now the most important term that you come across is growth stocks and value stocks. How do you determine this is a growth stock or a value stock?

Let’s make this clear with an example. Do you know how to read the balance sheet of a company? One of the most important things in doing research on a stock is the balance sheet of the company. Suppose, company ABC stock is presently selling for $50. Now suppose that last year company ABC earned $5 for every share of the stock outstanding. This means stock ABC P/E ratio is 50/5=10. So the higher the P/E ratio, the more investors are willing to pay for the stock. So what is the P/E ratio? The P/E ratio divides the price of the stock by the earnings per share. Over the years, studies have shown that the P/E ratio is somehow related with the growth of a company. Now the higher the P/E ratio, the more growth the company is supposed to have. So it can be either the company is growing real fast of the investor have high hopes of its growth. Now these hopes can be realistic or foolish, you never know!

Eugene Fama did seminal research on stocks and stock market s in 1970s. Most of his results were startling and broke many myths. According to Fama and French, two famous researchers who did ground breaking research on stocks, over the last 77 years, large growth stocks have only seen 9.9% annualized rate of return as compared to 11.5% for the large value stocks.

So most of these growth stocks become highly popular in a small period of time! Everyone rushes to buy these growth stocks thinking that they are great investments. The most probable cause seems to be their immense popularity. Since most of the headlines are captures by high growth companies, investors seem to think that they are the best investments. Now intuitively you might have thought that growth stocks are better. What can be the reason for their lower performance over the years?

Think about Google, how its stock price shot up within a matter of weeks after it hit the market. Weeks after that it began to cool off. So large growth stocks tend to get overpriced before you are able to buy them!

Mr. Ahmad Hassam is a Harvard University Graduate. Try these cash printing Forex Signals from heaven. Discover a revolutionary Forex Robot System!

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Index Options Investing (Part I)

Now for options buyers this option unlike futures limits their maximum liability to the option premium they had paid at the time of buying the options contract. The options market has caught the fancy of many investors and this is not surprising. The beauty of options is embedded in its very name. You have the options but not the obligation to buy or sell stocks at a given price by a given time.

You must have come across the term Index Options. So what are index options? In’78, Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) began options trading on popular stock indexes such as the S&P 500 Stock Index. The CBOE options trades in multiples of $100 per index point. This is much cheaper than the $250 multiple per index point for the S&P futures contract.

So how do the index options work? Let’s take an example. Suppose the S&P 500 Index is at 1100 points. You have a bullish opinion of the market and are of the opinion that the S&P 500 Index will go further up. An index option allows the investor to buy the stock index at a set point within the given time period. Options premiums is one of the most important concept that you need to grasp before you actually start trading options.

There are options Greeks that you need to understand. Time and volatility are two very important factors for an options contract. In case of an index options, what this means is that if any time for the next three months you decide to exercise your call option, you will get $100 for each point the index is above 1150. So you decide to purchase a call option at 1150 for three months for 50 points. In other words you paid an option premium of $5000.

So when an options contract loses value, you only lose the premium that you had paid while buying that contract. In that case you will only lose the premium of $5000 that you had paid to buy the call index option. Now, 1150 is the strike price of the index option. In case the S&P 500 Index does not rise above 1150, you can simply decide to not exercise your call option.

So for you to make a profit with this call option, the S&P 500 Index will have to rise above 1200 point within the next three months otherwise you will lose your premium. Contrast this with S&P futures. Call options are considered to be bullish.

In case the S&P Index had fallen to 1100 point, you would have recouped your options premium. Put options are considered to be bearish. A Put Index Option works in exactly the same way as a Call Index Option except that you make profit when the stock index goes down. If you had bought the put index options instead of the call index option in our example above, every point below the strike price of 1150 would have given you a profit of $100.

But the most important factor is the expected volatility of the market. Now the option premium that you pay is determined by the market and it depends on many factors like interest rates and dividend yield.

Mr. Ahmad Hassam has done Masters from Harvard University. Try these cash printing Forex Signals from heaven. Discover a revolutionary Forex Robot System!

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Investing In Stocks

The whole point of investing in stocks is to choose one that has the greatest chance of a rising share value. Don’t we all look for a stock that we could buy for $10 and later on sell for $300 per share? Well, how can we proceed to accomplish such a feat? What would make a stock rise so much?

So if the company does well, its stock will go up in price and if the company does poorly its stock will go down in price. Buying a stock is essentially buying a small piece of the company and its future potential for growth and profits.

Many people think of markets as something devoid of emotions and feeling. Nothing is far from the truth. Markets are living breathing organisms that react violently to different events. The marketplace is in fact buyers and sellers, individuals and organizations that want to buy stocks or sell them. Now why does the stock goes up and down with the performance of the company. Actually the real force behind the stock rise and fall is the market place.

If there are more buyers of the stock, its value will go up and if there are more sellers in the market, the stock price goes down. This buying and selling of stocks can only take place in exchanges like the New York Stock Exchange and over the counter markets like NASDAQ.

Now it doesn’t mean that if the company does well and is showing good profits and earnings, its stock price will go up. Sometimes you will find that the company does well and is posting good quarterly earnings but still its stock price goes down. What’s the reason behind this?

Everything in the markets is based on the expectations. Stock price goes up and down because of what the buyers and sellers expect will happen with the company in the near future. In reality the price of stock depends on the investor’s expectations. The price of a stock goes down because there are more sellers than buyers. So why is it so? The stock price does not go up or down just based on the company’s present performance. What can be the reason behind this unexpected stock price plunge?

However, the performance of the stock and the performance of the company over the long term have a logical relationship. In the short term, the behavior of the stock price is irrational and it can behave in crazy and illogical ways.

The bottom line is don’t worry about the short term gyrations of the stock price. Focus on finding companies that are strong, well positioned in the right industries and have solid fundamentals like a good management, good product, good service, growing industry, rising sales, increasing profits and so on. Picking a stock doesn’t happen in a vacuum. Understanding the company’s industry and the overall economic environment is critical to stock picking process. Sometimes the industry and the economy matters more than the company.

Mr. Ahmad Hassam is a Harvard University Graduate. Try these cash printing Forex Signals from heaven. Discover a revolutionary Forex Robot System!

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Leverage Your Investments For Greater Rewards

Leverage is simply investment jargon for borrowing. Its called “leverage” because you use the value of an existing investment to underwrite, or as security for, the borrowing.

This article covers the general principles of leveraging your investments. If it is something you are considering but have never done before, discuss your ideas with a licensed financial adviser. They will ensure you are structured correctly and can minimise your risk and exposure.

When I started investing, my borrowing habits where the same as most peoples. I had a floating credit card debt which varied to my whims. I had a small personal loan for some household items and a bigger one which enabled me to buy my car.

There are 2 problems with this type of borrowing. Firstly, all the assets I bought with the borrowed money were depreciating assets. This means that as I paid off the debt, the value of the things I bought decreased. Secondly, as I purchased “consumables”, the interest I paid on these loans was not tax deductible. This makes for a very expensive borrowing.

Things have changed over the years. I learned that debt is much more efficient when spent on investments. So now my credit card debt is negligible and paid off every month. My personal loans are completely paid off. Despite this, I have a lot more debt. I have a massive debt on an investment property. I have a margin loan for share trading. And I have a FOREX investment account which is leveraged at 400:1 (Which means I borrow $400 for every $1 I put in)

What is the logic then of borrowing to invest?

Borrowing to invest increases your ability to earn investment returns. Its simple maths really. You have more money to invest because you borrowed some, so when you invest the money wisely, you’ll earn more returns. There is one additional variable to this equation though to keep in mind, the interest on the loan. Your investment strategy must be strong enough that the additional earnings are higher than the interest on the borrowings. Otherwise your net position is actually going backwards. Ie. Overall, you are losing money.

Generally speaking also, interest payments on investment borrowing are tax deductible (get advice from your accountant on this point). As the borrowings have been made to increase your income, the interest payments on the loans are a direct cost of your income production. This typically makes the interest payments a tax deduction. For example, as my investment property creates a rental income, the borrowing are a cost associated with producing that rental income.

Margin loans work in exactly the same way. I have some stocks and I borrow some money using them as collateral. I typically try and keep a 50% leverage ratio, every dollar of stocks I own lets me borrow and invest another dollar. So I end up with a stock portfolio double the size I could have bought with my own money, I earn the returns on the entire portfolio, but pay interest on the money I have borrowed. Because I borrowed to earn money on stocks, the interest is tax deductible for me.

So there are definite advantages you can gain from leveraging your investments. There are risks also though, which is why you should seek proper financial advice prior to moving down this path.

So what are the risks associated with borrowing for investment purposes? One of the obvious risks relates to your financial capacity. There is the risk you over-extend yourself and cannot meet the repayment obligations on your loans. When taking out a loan, you need to be sure you can pay the loan repayments.

In a margin loan situation, it is a little different. If you borrow too much here, you may breach the allowable % of assets to debt you are given and if this happens, you will be expected to put more money in to put the loan back in “good order”. This can be quite difficult if the market swings strongly against you. So you need to know that in extremely adverse market conditions (2007 – 2009 are a good example of this) you can generate enough income to cover such margin calls.

Finally there is the investment risk. When you borrow to invest, you do so with the intention that the income earned from the money you invest, exceeds the interest the borrowing accrues. If the interest is higher than the investment earnings, you are losing money.

There are strategies to protect yourself against these risks though which your financial advisor can help you with. In my experience, it is definitely worthwhile borrowing to invest, but only if you manage your risk and cashflow responsibilities properly. So the one piece of specific advice I will give you here, is speak to a licensed financial advisor or accountant about whether this is an appropriate strategy for you. Only then should you work out how to structure it to match your personal circumstances.

Gnifrus Urquart has enjoyed impressive success investing for many years. As such, he enjoys discussing investment strategies and offering trading tips to anyone interested in investing

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Commodity Mutual Funds

The first question that may come to your mind is why invest in commodities? If you have been following the breaking news that you might have come across the news that gold prices have reached historically the highest level! Recently gold broke the price barrier of $1000 per ounce. This might be the best time to invest in commodities. A mutual fund is a fund managed by an investment professional on behalf of the fund investors. Now, mutual funds by law are constrained to follow conservative trading methods. Mutual funds cannot engage themselves in such sophisticated and risky trading techniques like arbitrage trades, long short strategies and distressed asset investing. Some expert of the opinion that the secular bull market started in the commodity market a few years back and may continue for the coming decade! If you want to invest in commodities than you have many options like trading commodity futures, commodity ETF, commodity stocks or commodity mutual funds.

There are many different mutual funds like stock funds, bond funds, currency funds and even country specific mutual funds. But there are a number of mutual funds that specialize in investing in commodities or commodity related products. If you want to have a low risk investment in commodities than you should think about buying shares of a commodity mutual fund.

The rate of return all depends on the investment strategy of the fund manager. You will have to minus your management fees and the different loads from this rate of return to arrive at the rate of return hat would reach you! These commodity mutual funds use different investment strategies. Some of these commodity mutual funds invest in derivates based on commodities such as futures contracts and options based on futures contracts traded on the major exchanges in New York, Chicago and so on.

So how can you invest in these commodity mutual funds? After doing your research on these commodity mutual funds, you can select one that you consider to fit your investment objectives, simply write a check and purchase the shares of that commodity mutual fund either through your broker or directly through the fund providers. There are commodity mutual funds that may invest in companies that process these raw commodities such as energy companies and mining companies. So you will have to do your research in find the right commodity mutual fund for your objectives.

Now I said, after doing your research. The first step in your research should be to compile a list of questions like what is the fund’s investment objective, what securities does the fund invest in, who manages the fund, what kind of strategy does the fund uses, what type of people invest in this fund, what are the risks involved in investing in this fund, what is the funds track record, what is the funds fees and expenses and so on.

Once you have your list of questions, see if the fund prospectus answers these questions satisfactorily. The good thing is that most of the mutual funds send their fund prospectus free! Now the two main commodity mutual funds are the PIMCO Commodity Real Return Strategy Fund and the Oppenhiemer Real Asset Fund. Now PIMCO Commodity Real Return Strategy Fund (PCRAX) is the largest commodity mutual fund in the market with $12 Billion of assets under its management. PCRAX tries to mimic the performance of Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index by investing directly in commodity linked instruments like futures contracts, forwards contracts and options on futures.

Now as always Morningstar website is a very good resource for doing your research on commodity mutual funds. It can give you a lot of information about these commodity mutual funds such as the latest news, updates, load charges, expense ratios and other useful key data. Morningstar also have got a five star rating system that can be really helpful to you in picking the best commodity mutual fund.

Mr. Ahmad Hassam is a Harvard University Graduate. Trade Dow Futures . Learn Commodity Trading !

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Commodities ETF

Commodity investing may become the hottest investment in the first decades of the 21st century. Right now gold prices have broken the $1000 per ounce barrier for the first time in history. It is predicted that this upward trend in gold prices will continue for the foreseeable future. Oil prices have also started reaching $80 per barrel and it is expected that oil price will soon be above the $100 per barrel mark. It may eventually reach the $200 per barrel barrier. If you are interested in investing in commodities than you can invest in a commodity mutual fund! Many people are not aware that commodities as an asset class has a lot of potential especially in the 21st century. It is being predicted that the 21st century belongs to the commodities.

This is the simplest way for you to get involved in investing in commodities as the mutual fund portfolio management will be done by a professional manager and you have to do nothing. Just buy the shares of the commodity mutual fund and let its NAV appreciate before you can sell for a capital gain.

ETFs started off some three decades back but became highly popular as investment vehicles in such a short time. Now, you must have heard about the Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). ETFs are really hot investments these days.

Now the good thing about investing in ETFs is that they give you the diversification benefits of a mutual fund with very low fees something like 0.7% as compared to 2-4% of the mutual fund. Driven by the growing demand of commodities by the investors many financial institutions are now offering Commodity ETFs.

So unlike a mutual fund whose net asset value is calculated at the end of the day and the shares of mutual fund cannot be traded during the day, you can go both long or short on ETFs all the time. Something you cannot do with a mutual fund! ETFs have the added benefit of being able to trade like stocks giving you the powerful combination of diversification and liquidity.

Now, you can find thousands of ETFs in the market on different market sectors, stock indexes, currencies, commodities and so on. This diversification plus liquidity benefit makes an ETF a better investment tool as compared to the mutual fund and the stocks.

The Deutsche Bank Commodity Index Tracking Fund is listed on AMEX and tracks the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index. This index is based on a basket of six commodities: light sweet crude oil, heating oil, gold, aluminum, corn and wheat. The first Commodity ETF in US was launched by Deutsche Bank in the start of 2006.

Now, every month a new ETF gets launched. There are a number of Commodity ETFs that track individual commodities like crude oil, gold and silver. Do your research on Commodity ETFs, you may find a good investment. This ETF invests directly in the commodity futures contract. Now one of the downsides of investing in this Commodity ETFs is that it can be fairly volatile as it is based on commodity futures contracts that get rolled monthly. Another downside to this Commodity ETF is that it is based on a basket of six commodities only.

Mr. Ahmad Hassam is a Harvard University Graduate. Trade Dow Futures . Learn Commodity Trading !

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MLP (Part I)

If you are interested in investing in companies that are involved in the production, transformation and distribution of commodities, than one of the best ways to do so is through investing in the Master Limited Partnership (MLP).

MLPs are public entities that trade on public exchanges. An MLP issues shares that trade on an exchange just like a company stocks that trades on an exchange. You can invest in an MLP by buying its shares on an exchange. The shares that an MLP issues are called Units and the investors who own them are known as Unit Holders.

When you invest in an MLP, you are essentially investing in public partnership. There are tax advantages to investing in MLP. Unlike regular corporations, an MLP is only taxed once. Now most of the MLPs trade on the New York Stock Exchange. A few MLPs also trade on the NASDAQ and the AMEX.

Congressional Legislation, any MLP that derives 90% or more of its income from the production, distribution and transformation of commodities qualifies for this tax exempt scheme.

Tax exemption means that MLP have to generate a lower rate of return as compared to other companies competing with it in the same sector. Since an MLP has got the tax exempt status it will only have to generate only $1.54 for each dollar that you invest in it. Suppose you invest $1 in the stocks of a regular corporation and you are in the 35% tax bracket. Corporate tax is 30% of its before tax income. This means that for each dollar that you invest you need to get at least $1/ (1-0.35) =$1.54 just in order to breakeven. So the corporation will have to generate $1.54/ (1-0.3) =$2.2 for each dollar that you invest in order to return you $1 after tax profit.

The role of a GP is very important in an MLP. You as an investor in the assets of MLP might have a very limited role or say in its running. You can think of yourself as a sleeping partner in the MLP. In most cases, the majority of these GPs in MLPs are other corporate entities setup with the specific purpose of running an MLP. This tax advantage gives an MLP competitive advantage as compared to other corporations when competing for assets. This means a huge advantage for an MLP. Now an MLP is run by a General Partner (GP). But you don’t have to worry much about the GP. Most GPs do a good job of running the MLP as it is in their financial interests. GPs know that if they don’t make sound management and investment decisions, most of the investors my eventually deicide to divest themselves from the units of the MLP. Now you must know as a limited partner in an MLP, you have limited voting rights. This means when you invest in an MLP, you are giving away the keys of ownership to the GP. This means you are out of the decision making in an MLP.

An MLP is obligated to distribute all available cash back to its unit holders on a quarterly basis, so you will be getting a quarterly income from your units. Secondly as the MLP expands and grows overtime, its units may give you capital gain as well. Investing in MLP units can give you quarterly cash flows as well as appreciation of the unit price.

Mr. Ahmad Hassam is a Harvard University Graduate. Trade Dow Futures . Learn Commodity Trading !

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